The COP season has begun: what can we expect?

W

ith COP16 on Biodiversity in Cali, Colombia, we began the two-month cycle of UN conferences on environmental issues. At least the ones that now make headlines. For some years now, the most famous of all has been the COP par excellence, that is to say the UN Climate Change Conference, which this year marks its 29th edition in Baku, Azerbaijan. 

 

As we know, these conferences—whether annual or biennial like the COP on Biodiversity (last held two years ago in Montreal)—serve as official meetings “of the parties,” i.e. where all United Nations member states gather to discuss a specific issue. However, the COP on Climate Change became a fundamental annual event for global diplomacy since the COP21 in Paris in 2015 led to the signing of an international treaty in the momentarily peaceful diplomatic political climate between the U.S. and China at the time, which has since formed the basis for the activities of environmental movements but also private entrepreneurs interested in environmentally friendly innovation. In the same way as it has become a reference for national states—both those facing pressing challenges like deforestation, flooding, and other increasingly frequent disasters, and technologically advanced nations looking to mitigate climate impacts in a rapidly urbanizing world.

 

Reducing CO2, preventing global temperatures from rising by more than one and a half degrees, and allocating billions of dollars from the Global North to the Global South for a fair transition have brought attention—and at times emotion—to the following eight editions, with moments of great disappointment as well as progress. The COP on Climate Change, which we will return to later because it is scheduled for the end of November, will be attended by heads of state and government, which makes the event particularly important, even though this year's conference will focus on the themes of CO2 capture and storage and the use of finance to fund a global ecological transition.

 

Guterres and the United Nations call for the environment for peace

 

This year, there will be two COPs on Biodiversity. To mark the 30th anniversary of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), in addition to the usual conference convened every two years—this year in Cali, Colombia—a special session will be held in December in Riyadh on the issue of desertification and specific support projects. In short, the COP season began with the event in Cali in early November, will continue in Baku with the COP on Climate Change, and will conclude in mid-December in Riyadh in an environment media storm that has been strongly supported by the United Nations from the offset, with Secretary-General António Guterres—in these difficult times in term of the symbolic value of the UN and the real wars we are experiencing—seeking to highlight the role of peace these conferences play: "Nature is life. And yet we are waging a war against it. A war where there can be no winner. Every year, we see temperatures climbing higher. Every day, we lose more species. Every minute, we dump a garbage truck of plastic waste into our oceans, rivers, and lakes. Make no mistake. This is what an existential crisis looks like. No country, rich or poor, is immune to the devastation inflicted by climate change, biodiversity loss, land degradation, and pollution. These environmental crises are intertwined. They know no borders. And they are devastating ecosystems and livelihoods, threatening human health and undermining sustainable development. The drivers of this destruction are embedded in outdated economic models, fueling unsustainable production and consumption patterns. They are multiplied by inequalities—in wealth and power. And with each passing day, we are edging closer to tipping points that could fuel further hunger, displacement, and even armed conflicts.” This somber reflection perhaps reflects the difficult times also for the role of the UN, fortunately accompanied by a final comment of hope: “Biodiversity is humanity’s ally. We must move from plundering it to preserving it. As I have said time and again, making peace with nature is the defining task of the twenty-first century.”

 

In reality, judging from the conclusions, efforts were made but not to any great extent, despite the attention and the 20,000 accredited participants, including officials, experts, enthusiasts, academics, foundations, and many private entities, including leading companies in technological innovation.

 

An initial assessment of CBD COP16

 

The conference established 23 targets, which, taken together, represent an attempt to fully safeguard 30 percent of the planet's land and 30 percent of its waters.  This means safeguarding them fully from a biological perspective, while obviously not neglecting other aspects. This is an ambitious goal: for instance, Italy, one of the countries that has presented a plan for the next decade, needs to, within just five years, create protected parks and bioregions covering an area equal to all existing areas protected over the past 100 years, starting from the Gran Paradiso National Park (1920). Of the 196 UN countries, 40 have submitted complete plans, and 107 have submitted partial plans. Based on this, an agreement was reached to allocate USD 20 billion annually until 2025, with this figure increasing to USD 30 billion per year starting in 2030, to achieve these goals. Considering that of the previously allocated funds (USD 20 billion approved in Montreal two years ago), USD 4.6 billion remains unaccounted for, and only USD 165 million has been committed for operational programs, with just three countries—Norway, Germany, and Sweden—fulfilling their pledges, it is clear that this remains a sore point.

And this sore point runs through all the COPs: there is a need for coordination on financial commitments to ensure that countries do not pledge on one front while cutting funds on another. Additionally, programs need to be coordinated to ensure they are launched, can be evaluated, and, above all, yield results. General consensus can be reached on major joint statements, and these certainly have cultural and moral value, but the link to the coherence of future projects remains tenuous.

 

For example, the COP16 on Biodiversity in Cali almost unanimously recognized the rights of indigenous and native peoples, who represent six percent of the global population but inhabit 80 percent of the land and waters that must be preserved in the jointly established 30 percent target. However, this will remain an empty promise unless it is followed by national and international regulations, funding, and—most importantly—concrete programs to engage these peoples in the stewardship of these specific areas.

 

The extraordinary COP on biodiversity and desertification in Riyadh

 

Hopes for tangible progress rest on the extraordinary COP16 in Riyadh, which, thirty years after the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, will focus on analyzing the actions undertaken. This concrete focus is not far removed from economic needs but is centered on project dynamics; a slightly different and perhaps more concrete approach advocated by UNCCD President Alain-Richard Donwahi, who has on-the-ground experience as Minister for Agriculture, Water, and Forests in Côte d'Ivoire between 2017 and 2022.

 

The working agenda certainly includes a general overview and linkage with the recent COP16 in Cali and the general COP29 on Climate Change in Baku, but the unexpected benefit of the theme of desertification and combating drought lies in the specific focus; the issue affects a far larger number of people than may be imagined and countries that may come as a surprise to those who do not usually follow these issues. Firstly, we are talking about phenomena that affect some 3.2 billion people living in places potentially, or already, at risk.  Moreover, it is not only the “poor” African states but also the “rich” Arab states and even China, or—although in non-densely populated areas—even Australia. It is no coincidence that some of the projects to combat desertification are mainly in these countries: from the 'Great Green Wall'—8,000 kilometers of green to hold back the advancing desert in 8 African states—to the 'Three North Shelterbelt Forest' project for China's northern border or the 'Saudi and Middle East Green Initiative.' These projects have been underway for some time; the first, in just a few years has restored 30 million hectares of green, "captured" nearly 40 million tons of carbon, and created green jobs for approximately 3 million people on the border between the African forest and the desert. The second, in China, began in 1978 and is forecast to end in 2050, with the goal of restoring 35 million hectares in a green belt 4,500 kilometer long and 550 kilometer wide, through the planting of an impressive 66 billion trees. Lastly, the third project engages several neighboring Arab countries, with a commitment of EUR 175 billion in 80 localized initiatives and 50 billion trees over 200 million hectares to reclaim land from the desert.

 

The very concrete approach engages not only national governments but also private contributions, i.e. companies, especially in Arab and some African countries, that want to experiment with new, non-invasive green technologies that are much less culturally and economically oppressive.

 

It seems promising and certainly brought a wave of fresh ideas and interest to Cali. Will it be successful in introducing elements of innovation and virtuous engagement of companies and private entities in all UN Conferences? It should be said in fairness that in just the last three summits on Climate Change, US Envoy John Kerry has brought together, coordinated and organized the groups of entrepreneurs and private companies committed to financing mitigation and ecological transition policies. So, this is nothing new, but rather a confirmation that funds committed by the public and private sectors and invested on the ground in even ambitious projects, when managed properly, can achieve results.

 

We will soon see in Baku and Riyadh whether these good intentions will make 2024 a memorable year for the environment.